Russias military doctrine has a de-escalation policy: its response to a large-scale conventional attack would be met with a limited nuclear strike. Infographic: Military capabilities of Russia and Ukraine First, the amount of fires employed in the wargame was only a fraction of what the Russians had available. Sign in to see reasons why you may or may not like this based on your games, friends, and curators you follow. Staff writer Carlito Pablo lives in Vancouver. Players take up the roles of Russia, the Ukrainian government, Ukrainian Separatists, the USA, and the European Union. It may turn out the Russian advance was slowed due to political directives, but, at the moment, many observers can fairly attribute much of what is being reported from the battlefield to general Russian incompetence. Simulations perform a similar function, as a given run-through constitutes a narrative. 80% 0. In the north, a Ukrainian brigade conducted a spoiling attack against Russian forces across the border in Belarus. Your email address will not be published. Editors note: Dont miss our comprehensiveguide to Russias war against Ukraine. The Ukrainian military and people are putting up much stouter resistance than Putin or any of his senior-most commanders anticipated. How a Russian invasion of Ukraine could spill over into Europe In real life, the Ukrainians appear to have opted to do as our after-action analysis tells us was the best course of action, and Kharkiv continues to hold out against increasingly ferocious Russian assaults. 100% 0. They added it was a limited response and did not say what type of target the US military had simulated attacking. In terms of computer wargames, Operational Art of War IV apparently has some levels displaying Russian and Ukrainian armies at war. The map above shows the prewar garrison positions of Ukraines land forces. According to research organization RAND, should a major conflict arise in Russia and China's 'backyards,' US forces would be crushed by a vast array of both conventional and cyber weapons. Ill share some here in the hope they give us some ways of thinking about where the crisis may be headed. This video is a war simulation between Ukraine and Russia.This video was not made to offend anyone! This is in contrast with nearly every expert and pundit on the airwaves, who are expressing astonishment at how this conflict is unfolding. Publicly revealing nuclear exercises and actually launching nuclear missiles are two very different matters. Military Strength Comparisons for 2023 - Global Firepower Russia-Ukraine war latest; Mark Rice-Oxley @markriceoxley69. For a sustained investment of an additional $8 billion a year between 2020 and 2030, the U.S. Air Force could buy the kit needed to make a difference, he said, noting that similar sums would be required for the Army and Navy. Putin was warned he could lose Chinese support if he goes nuclear. The result . Russia-Ukraine war in maps and charts: Live Tracker - Al Jazeera The global impact of Russia's war in Ukraine : NPR Legal Statement. A simulation, in contrast, is either a human or computer representation of a situation, where people (or software) make decisions to drive that situation to an end state. Sign in to add this item to your wishlist, follow it, or mark it as ignored. By JAMEY KEATEN February 27, 2023. Also, as of yet, the Russians have not forced the Dnieper in the south, and the forces in the east, pushing forward north of Kharkiv, are still some distances from the Dnieper crossings. He says he has a beard like one. This may include adverts from us and 3rd parties based on our understanding. The only difference was that in the wargame these strikes were focused on eliminating Ukraines air force and air defense network, whereas the actual distribution of Russian strikes has been more varied. Battle of Bakhmut, Ukraine 2023. The defenses north of Kyiv had not broken and if supported they may have held for a considerable period. - Need more user reviews to generate a score, Espaol - Latinoamrica (Spanish - Latin America). Indeed, it looks like the Biden administration took both simulations and scenarios seriously in their planning. You are really sick sociopaths to play Gods and engineer futures. When @BryanAlexander is futuring about you, youd better start futuring yer own dang self! NAVY PLANS 'BLUE FORCE' OPEN WATER WEAPONS STRATEGY FOR NEW FRIGATE. Putin joined Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for a "major military . Simulator THE RUSSIA vs. Ukraine War | GAMES - YouTube Prosecutors allege the Kansas men conspired to evade US export laws starting in 2020. 2023 FOX News Network, LLC. This ends up being the last straw for NATO, which then decides direct intervention in Ukraine is necessary to push back against Russian aggression, Kazianis wrote. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions. This appears to be exactly what the Russian forces have been attempting in the first 96-hours of the war. The video shows footage from "Arma 3," a military-style video game. Maps: Tracking the Russian invasion of Ukraine - reuters.com Realizing that these forces were at high risk of envelopment and could not withstand an all-out assault by Russias 8thCombined Arms Army, the decision was made to withdraw to the Dnieper River, with the exception of the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade plus parts of the 53rd and 54th Mechanized Brigades, which were sent to consolidate positions in and around Kharkiv. Russia has more than 15,857 armored fighting . What do you make of these? We war-gamed an escalation of the Ukraine-Russia crisis - here's what Both of these actions were, however, discussed by the players in the wargame. Much of the Ukrainian air force was destroyed on the ground as a result of Kalibr and Kh-101 cruise missile strikes, special operations-enabled targeting and direct action, and air strikes. PLAN A | Princeton Science & Global Security Ukraine and several other countries . NATO decides to respond in kind, Kazianis wrote. Also, this is my first video in a while without commentation. In Ukraine Defender you control Ukrainian plane which can shoot and throw bombs at Russian Z forces, The game has built-in timer 500s after which the game ends . Sun 13 Mar 2022 08.46 EDT Last modified on Sun 13 Mar 2022 10.42 EDT. At present, the Russians appear to possess air superiority, but the reported 30+ sorties the Ukrainians are launching daily have denied the Russians the level of air dominance that they achieved in the wargame. How Poland Just Lost to Russia in a Massive Wargame (And What It Means) Billionaire Deripaska warns Russia may run out of money in 2024 "Once the nuclear threshold is crossed, it may be very difficult to prevent escalation to an all-out nuclear war, i.e., escalating from single use, to a tactical nuclear war in Europe, to a counterforce attack, and ultimately to a countervalue attacktargeting cities and economic centers with the aim of inhibiting the other side's recovery," Glaser said. All fatality estimates are limited to acute deaths from nuclear explosions and would be significantly increased by deaths occurring from nuclear fallout and other long-term effects. And secondly, the Russian assault in Kherson was temporarily halted, as the axis of advance in the south for a time turned northeast toward Mariupol. Nuclear War Simulator Shows What War With Russia Would Look Like There are just two bridges on the southern sector of the Dnieper River which are key terrain. The Ukrainian commander, in the wargame, decided to send three brigades from the city to counterattack into the flank of Russian armored forces. So, yeah, that is pretty standard both for political reasons to signal and also to actually prepare for that situation if it did happen.. Russian ambassador to UK Andrey Kelin said the killing of civilians in Ukraines Bucha was staged by Ukrainian forces. Signing up for this newsletter means you agree to our data policy, comprehensiveguide to Russias war against Ukraine, convinced many Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators, blood and iron, in which Otto von Bismarck. Josh Calder created another infographic, this time of what might result from the war. Between Russia and the US alone, scientists concluded a nuclear war would kill 3.1 million people within 45 minutes. Mr Putin launched that attack after mass street protests in Ukraine that ousted pro-Russian . In an intelligence update on Tuesday, the U.K. Ministry of Defense said that since the end of February, there has . Figure 4: Wargame Situation End of Game Day 3 Southern Front. The mapping scenario focuses on geography and the capturing of major cities, making it different from my usual videos. In the wargame, the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army attacked on an axis aimed at the Dnieper River bend, intent on bypassing Kharkiv to the north while the 20th Combined Arms Army approached the outskirts of Kharkiv. As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 374th day, we take a look at the main developments. Live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine - CNBC The damage done to Ukraines air defense system was extensive, neutralizing the core integrated air defense network in the first two days, although the dispersion of Ukraines BUK systems assured a residual anti-air capability. Watch this video to find out what will happ. The crucial early decision for Ukraine was what to do with the 17 to 20 battalions arrayed on the line of control in the Donbas area. GENEVA (AP) Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has triggered "the most massive violations of human rights" in the world today, the head of the United Nations said Monday, as the war pushed into its second year with no end in sight and tens of thousands dead. Nukes kill 1 billion: defence expert recalls 2019 U.S. simulation of Despite a few stark differences, the current Russian offensive is playing out in ways eerily similar to that simulation. "In addition to the immediate death and suffering and economic and societal collapse, in the years following the war, the phenomenon of nuclear winter would exacerbate the catastrophe," he said, pointing to one study which found that more than five billion people could eventually die from a nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia. Russia says the top diplomats spoke on the move at a G20 meeting in India but did not hold Ukraine negotiations. Simulating Nuclear War | Princeton Science & Global Security "Within 48 to 72 hours, Russian forces . Approximately 90 percent of all nuclear warheads are owned by Russia and the United States, who each have around 4,000 warheads in their military stockpiles; no other nuclear-armed state sees a need for more than a few hundred nuclear weapons for national security, the FAS notes. Feb 25, 2023 2:35 PM EST. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Many call themselves futurists Bryan actually knows how to do it. Since then, the simulation has received more than a million views. A former Royal Air Force chief has warned a nuclear war is no longer unthinkable as Russia continues to escalate its assault on Ukraine. Are there other scenarios or simulations for this topic which you recommend? Putin and Lukashenko attended nuclear drills just before Russia invaded Ukraine. Fact Check-Videogame footage superimposed with news banner on Russia The war in Ukraine is fuelling a global . Ukraine conflict: Russian forces attack from three sides Below are ten infographics that break down the history, politics and economics of the Ukraine-Russia crisis. Also, at the start of the campaign, the Russians avoided striking at the four regional Ukrainian command and control headquarters, in order to allow them to communicate their surrender if the government collapsed. Russias apparent reticence to bury Ukraines military under a blanket of fire has surprised many Western observers. Russia obtained complete victory within five days. So, although the number of actual strikes made by the Russians in the conflicts first 24-hours tracked almost exactly to what was employed by the Russians in the wargame, the impact was substantially different. In RANDs wargames and analysis, Russia, and particularlyChina, unleash so many missiles that they overcome U.S. defenses. While it is not clear if Russian President Vladimir Putin would ever go so far as to use nuclear weapons, the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has led to a spike in discussions about the potential outbreak of nuclear war. Today's video presents a war simulation, which maps out a war between Russia and Ukraine. Secondary targets were Ukraines dozens of BUK (SA-17) systems. This led to a major engagement about 40 kilometers northwest of Kharkiv against the Russian 27th Guards Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. In another Russia successfully occupies Ukraine and the Baltic states, dealing NATO a major defeat. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Moreover, Russias capacity to concentrate vast ground fires artillery, rockets, and missiles still allows the Russian army to overwhelm the Ukrainians at any chosen point. So if Putin did use them, it would be incredibly difficult for China to stand by him. Three days later on February 27, the Russian leader put his countrys nuclear forces on high alert, saying NATO officials have made aggressive statements. In the two weeks prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Marine Corps University ran a four-day wargame to simulate the first several days of just such an invasion. VAT included in all prices where applicable. Putin also orders a massive cyber attack on the Baltic states military infrastructure, thinking that NATO will use the Baltics to stage an invasion of Russia. In one a Russian invasion of Ukraine develops into war with NATO, and Moscows forces are ultimately defeated. Required fields are marked *, Notify me of followup comments via e-mail. Close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine war say the fluid and rapidly changing nature of the conflict makes it hard to gauge what will happen next in Ukraine, with both Moscow's . You've successfully subscribed to this newsletter! Get a daily look at whats developing in science and technology throughout the world. Editor's note: Don't miss our comprehensive guide to Russia's war against Ukraine . All rights reserved. These headquarters were just starting to come under intense pressure when the game ended. This is what nuclear war between US and Russia would look - indy100 When the game ended, Ukraines forces in the north were under heavy pressure (see map below) but aside from one brigade were largely unengaged and remained astride the approaches to Kyiv. Figure 5: Wargame Situation End of Game Day 3 Northern Front. Fears remain that Moscow will launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine. Join my discord server: https://discord.gg/A799aXy Support me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.c. Once again, the wargame matched actual Russian moves with uncanny accuracy. In the wargame, the Ukraine team screened the bottleneck to the north of the Crimean Peninsula but could not contain a powerful Russian attack that pushed through and advanced on Kherson. The U.S. National Defense Strategy, which was released by the DoD last year, cites the restoration of Americas competitive edge by blocking global rivals Russia and China from challenging the U.S. and our allies, as one its key goals. On Thursday (March 10), Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that he does not believe that the conflict in Ukraine would lead to a nuclear war. Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. On February 24, Russian forces began advancing into Ukrainian territory across several fronts, marking a major escalation in a conflict that started in 2014. Market data provided by Factset. The public announcement of these exercises might be for one of two reasons, security expert Dr David Blagden told Express.co.uk. By Olena Harmash KYIV (Reuters) - When Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, the shelves of the Novus supermarket chain in Kyiv quickly emptied as its . STRATFOR created several scenarios describing different Russian invasion strategies: The reality looks most like Hold East Ukraine. This elicited at least one critique. These same concerns appear to be driving the Ukrainians in the real fight. Multiple scenarios give us ways to see divergent possibilities. The United Nations Refugee agency (UNHCR) protects and assists the refugees of this and all other conflicts worldwide. U.S. Makes Contingency Plans in Case Russia Uses Its Most Powerful Will Putin conquer the whole nation, or move on to new targets? "The simulation was also supported by data sets of the nuclear weapons currently deployed, weapon yields, and possible targets for particular weapons, as well as the order of battle estimating which weapons go to which targets in which order in which phase of the war to show the evolution of the nuclear conflict. | Rob Reynolds, Two figures for generative AI: the calculator and the mad scientists assistant, Another queen sacrifice might be in the works, this time in Virginia. A Foreign Affairs article offers a range of outcomes following Russian success in Ukraine. There have been dozens of wars in the almost 80 years since World War II ended. Blue denotes U.S. forces in the simulations. Putin, and those advisers who still have his ear, may have been convinced many Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators and the march to Kyiv would be an easy one. The surviving remnants were overwhelmed and destroyed in the air, some being shot down by long-range air defense systems in Russia, with ranges extending into Ukrainian airspace. Russia using claims about Ukrainian nuclear weapons to justify invasion, UK says. Still, their forces are greatly outnumbered, particularly in the air. The simulation begins in the context of a conventional conflictRussia fires a warning shot from a base near the city of Kaliningrad in an attempt to stop a U.S./NATO advance. A journalist who formerly worked in Manila, he's a proud new Canadian. Chilling World War III 'wargames' show US forces crushed by Russia and To view reviews within a date range, please click and drag a selection on a graph above or click on a specific bar. Ukraine Defender on Steam Theyre showing them that theyre taking that contingency seriously.. On this channel you can expect to see a large variety of mapping content! War in Petropol . Another difference was in the impact of the Russian air and missile campaign. Mutual Fund and ETF data provided by Refinitiv Lipper. Image: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg. Over the holidays, stuck at home sick so just fell into not getting dressed. Published On 4 Mar 2023 4 Mar 2023 Biden, Scholz pledge to punish Russia over Ukraine war In the actual conflict, there are recent reports of Ukrainian units moving off these lines suffering large losses, as the wargame predicted. Photos; Timeline; . Russia and China have amassed large inventories of precision-guided cruise missiles and ballistic missiles that can reach hundreds of miles and strike military targets, the researcher said. Russia Vs. Ukraine (War Simulation) - YouTube Is @BryanAlexander a wizard because he wrote about the possibility of a pandemic in 2018? Liked it? Quotes displayed in real-time or delayed by at least 15 minutes. As the Ukrainian government made a political calculation not to mobilize or move units into defensive positions, this map likely represents where most Ukrainian military formations started the war. Its total in 2021 was estimated to be $801bn, according to Statista. International Atomic Energy Agency in 24/7 response mode after fire at site of Ukrainian nuclear power plant, Vladimir Putin puts Russian nuclear forces on high alert, Noam Chomsky calls on Justin Trudeau to sign January 22's UN Nuclear Ban Treaty, Georgia Straight guide to the 34th annual Dancing on the Edge festival, Education: Upgrade your skills for a dramatically new world. Despite Russia's continued disastrous handling of its war of choice in Ukraine, the conflict's . Click 'COMPARE' to process the request. Since current events gradually render these alternate histories, they may also serve as interesting historical notes. This is what would happen if Russia and the US had a nuclear war - MSN We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you've consented to and to improve our understanding of you. Note the chained sequences of effects, along with rating them for relative likelihood of occurring: A Bloomberg column considers three scenarios for how western economic sanctions could impact Russia and the world. (thanks to Brian Tain for this post and for answering my question, as well as to Lennaert van Mierlo and the Association of Professional Futurists, especially Josh Calder and Stephen Aguilar-Milan, plus Viktor Motti. The conflict followed fighting in Ukraine. In the game, moving away from the line of control proved difficult, as retreats under pressure always are. In terms of computer wargames, Operational Art of War IV apparently has some levels displaying Russian and Ukrainian armies at war. This may be where simulations and scenarios become useful. But the tableau in fact comes from "This War of Mine" an award-winning video game from . In fact, news reports indicate that is already happening. The chaos of the past week might be incorrectly comforting. How Russia and Ukraine's militaries compare | CNN The scenario shown in the piece is a plausible one based on the available evidence. (PDF) A Simulation of a Possible War between Russia and Ukraine: How Still, the retreat was necessary in the wargame to ensure those forces were not encircled from the north and by forces moving out of Crimea. More bad things happen, and a NATO move surprises everyone. | Rob Reynolds. [F]uturist and higher-ed guru Bryan Alexander. "It is estimated that there would be more than 90 million people dead and injured within the first few hours of the conflict," Glaser said. Quotes displayed in real-time or delayed by at least 15 minutes. Market data provided by Factset. Russia Engages With Ukraine on Cyber Battlefield - TheStreet was a computer rendering from a combat flight simulator originally uploaded by a YouTube user with just 3,000 . Even prior to this year, Russia and the United States had been abandoning long-standing nuclear arms control treaties, commenced the development of new kinds of nuclear weapons, and expanded the range of circumstances in which these weapons might be used. In the ensuing battle, both the 27th SMRB and the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade were destroyed. In the final stage of the conflict, both Russia and NATO target the 30 most populated cities and economic centers of the other sideusing 5-10 nuclear warheads on each depending on population sizein an attempt to inhibit the potential for recovery. In an ironic reversal of the situation during the Cold War, NATO is now the dominant conventional coalition in Europe, while Russia is a weak state with a large but less powerful army. Tim Barrick is a retired Marine Corps colonel and the director of wargaming at Marine Corps University. Dr Heather Williams, nuclear expert at King's College London, told the BBC: Russia is heavily dependent on Chinese support, but China has a no first use nuclear doctrine. One must be very careful when using a wargame for predictive purposes. File photo - Infantrymen of the 3rd Battalion, 69th Armored Regiment, 1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division, fire M1A2 System Enhancement Package Version 2 vehicles on Tapa Army Base, Nov. 13, 2015.